Chapter 4
History of Population Growth
Karl Marx vs. Thomas Malthus = Environment or Culture Control Human Population Growth
Technology and Population
Current Population
Fertility
Demographic Transition
Choosing to Starting a Family
The Future of Population
Chapter 14 (14.1, 14.2, 14.3, 14.5)
City of Opportunity, City of Crisis
Expanding cities
City Plagues
Urban transportation
Improving City Life
Sustainable Development
International Trade and Responsible Development
Chapter 13
We Produce Waste-How much?
How do we get rid of our waste?
Recycling, Reuse, Reducing
Hazardous Waste
Cleanup and Storage
Chapter 9 (9.1-9.3)
Atmosphere and its role
Capturing Energy
Climate Changes
Fast Changing Climate
Evidence of Change
The Ongoing Debate
Chapter 4
History of Human Population Growth
Our world is growing. That is an undeniable fact. Between 1804 and 2010 our globes human population exploded from one billion to seven billion (keeping in mind that it took from before 8,000 B.C. to 1804 to reach one billion). Many fear that if our population continues to grow at such a rapid pace our globe will suffer from lack of resources and overpopulation. Others, however, take a more optimistic approach. They hope that amongst the increasing population there will be more minds and more hands to create technology to improve our lives and make our resources last.
In today’s world four or five babies are born every second compared to the one or two people that die every second. This gives us over two and a half extra people every second. We are adding to our population faster than we are dying. The human race also inhabits more of the world than any other species on the planet. We impact and touch nearly every corner of the globe.
Karl Marx vs. Thomas Malthus = Environment or Culture Control Human Population Growth
In 1798 Thomas Malthus set out to convince economists of his time that increasing population was not a sign of national wealth and prosperity. According to his theories, human population was growing exponentially but food production grew at a much slower pace. Malthus’ goal was to show the people of his day that increasing the population did not increase the industrial output, but put them at greater risk of starvation. Human population growth is only controlled by disease or famine, and social constraints such as late marriage, and other moral restraint.
Less than a century later Karl Marx appeared with a different point of view. According to Marx, the human population continued to increase as a result of poverty, resource depletion, and other social factors. Marx theorized that the only way to slow population growth was to treat people justly and reduce the poverty rate.
Today there are scientists that believe we are rapidly reaching maximum capacity for our planet. David Pimental stated that less than a hundred years from now, there will be twelve billion people on our globe living horrible and destitute lives.
Technology and Population
Technology has greatly improved our standard of living and our quality of live. However, it is this same technology that caused our earth’s human population to skyrocket. It was events like the industrial revolution and the scientific revolution that began the spike in our population. Technology created boosts in agriculture productivity, commerce and medicine. People stopped dying from simple illnesses and trade enabled our population to bring food and technology to other parts of the world. This technology increased our ability to provide for the population (nearly 1,000 times what was possible 10,000 years ago).
Today we could provide about 2,730 calories per person on the planet which has increased since the 1970’s. But technology has not been all good for the planet. While we are able to support a growing population, it comes with a cost. We leave behind an ecological footprint (or the amount of land it would take to support us). In countries like the United States, each person requires more than 10 times the productive land that a person in Malawian would require! The more we need the more of the earth that we use, and we are using it faster and in larger quantities than the planet can give us.
Given all of this information, many economists are still optimistic. Some feel that more people means an increase in mass production and human ingenuity.
Current Population
It is a near impossible task to measure the planets population accurately. It was estimated that there were seven billion people on earth in 2010. This number did not take into account homeless, illegal immigrants, and refugees that may not have been counted. It is also possible that governments overstated or understated their countries population for many different reasons.
Our world is split into two different demographic groups. One of these groups is poor, young and growing at exponential rates, while the other is rich , old, and the population is declining. In the next forty years the first demographic will have the highest populations on the planet, while the other will continue moving down the list.
It is not only the rich countries that are seeing a decline in population. Russia has seen a significant decline in population as a result of the declining economy, crime, and corruption has taken the “life” out of the country. These cultural factors have resulted in a higher number of deaths and fewer births. It is projected that in the next forty years, Russia’s population will be smaller than Vietnam.
AIDS has caused a similar problem in some African countries. AIDS and other diseases are killing of people in Africa at an outstanding rate. Because of AIDS, people who would have lived to close to 70 years old, will now die in their early thirties.
Fertility
Fertility is defined as the production of offspring (as opposed to fecundity which is the physical ability to reproduce). Birth rates are calculated in terms of crude birth rate (literally the number of births a year per 1, 000 people) The total fertility rate is the number of children born to a woman during her lifetime. Three to four hundred years ago the European women with wet nurses could expect to have between 25 -30 pregnancies, while the working class people in North America averaged around 12 children.
Zero Population Growth happens when the combination of birth and immigration equals the combination of death and emigration (leaving the area). Zero population growth requires that we replace ourselves, but not add more to the population. In developed countries like the United States this numbers is about 2.1 children per couple (this takes into account couples who cannot have children and/or choose not to have children). In areas that have a higher infant mortality rates the replacement number could be as high as 5 children.
In an effort to slow their population growth, China implemented a policy that only allowed each family to have one child. This policy has been very effective in reducing population growth, but has caused some people to questions the human rights issues it affects.
Death rates are calculated in the same manner as birth rates, the number of deaths a year per 1,000 people. Countries that have limited health care also have higher death rates than countries that have ready health care.
Life expectancies around the world have increased dramatically in the last hundred years. Improvements in modern medicine has increased the average amount of time that we can expect to survive. In 1900 the average American could expect to live until they were around 46, today the life expectancy is 76. People are living decades longer than they were one hundred years ago. It is not to say that every American man is going to live to 76. Some will die younger and other older. Some areas of the country have a significantly lower life expectancy (such as Pine Ridge Indian Reservation where the average life expectancy is 45).
While it appears to be positive that we are living longer, this also means that the population is continuing to grow and our impact on the world is lasting thirty years longer. If our population stabilizes or even declines, we face the possibilities of there not being enough young people to take care of the aging generations. This population balance sits on a very fragile teeter totter with every shift in the center causing a rippling balancing act.
Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition is the process of going from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates. Demographers have shown that developed countries have gone through this demographic transition. Each phase shows the fluctuation of the population and ration of births to deaths. Today demographers see this same transition process occurring in underdeveloped countries. Now, these countries have seen a decline in death, but unlike the developed countries, have not seen a decrease in birth. As a result some countries and states have opted to control the population by social justices or simply making policy that limits reproduction.
The issue that America faces today because of the demographic transition is the support of our elderly. While Social Security was mean to provide support for our elderly, the law was passed when there appeared to be more than enough young citizens to support the older population. However, at this stage in the transition this is no longer the case. There are far more members of the older demographic than the young demographic meant to support them.
Choosing to Start a Family
Family planning allows a couple to choose when and how many children to have during their lives. Today we have many forms of birth control and family planning. They range from birth control pills, to condoms and surgical procedures that stop ovulation or the release of sperm. However, people have been regulating their reproduction long before the introduction of modern medicine. Every culture or tribe has had a belief system or method for family planning and population control.
The Future of Population
Most demographers believe that the population will stabilize during the 21 century. By the time this stabilization occurs our global population will be around 8 to 10 million. Contraceptive methods are being spread around the world, giving countries more control to regulate their birth rates and balance out their populations. Studies have shown that most people prefer smaller families and those that can (over 50%) use some form of family planning. As our world changes and concern shifts to limited resources and the ecological footprint, we must all look to the future and balance the teeter totter of population. Controlling populations requires changes in thinking and cultural acceptance by each and every country.
Chapter 14
City of Opportunity, City of Crisis
Cities around the world are growing at alarming rates. Right now, about half of the population of the world lives in cities, in twenty years it will increase to two thirds of the population will call the city their home. The increase in population of these cities will put a strain on the urban resources such as roads, transportation, schools and water supplies. Despite the difficulties that the increased population will bring, it will also bring innovation. People of all different walks of life come together and diverse employment opportunities and new economics; the more people that live in the city the more space there is available for farming and agriculture.
The city will bring new ways of living sustainably. In fact, it is the city that will show us how to live a “green” lifestyle (New York City has the highest number of people walking and using public transportation than any other city in the world).
Expanding Cities
As the cities around the world grow, a shift can be seen. Cities that had the highest populations at the beginning of the 20th century are now being surpassed by cities in underdeveloped countries. It is projected that by 2025 three fourths of the cities with populations over 5 million will b in developing countries.
China has had the largest demographic shift in our history. When collectivized farming ended, all of that population (to the tune of 250 million people) moved into the cities. As these cities continue to grow, so do their structures. Many of these cities have begun building more skyscrapers to accommodate the influx of people and industries.
City Plagues
While the cities of the world grow, so the living conditions of these cities deteriorate. While these cities offer more jobs and the chance to improve the quality of life, it comes with a price. Many cities around the globe do not have adequate water supply, living space, or sanitation.
China has 16 of the 20 worst cities for air pollution. As the economy in China rises more people in the cities are buying personal automobiles and adding to the already dangerous levels of air pollution. This results in almost a half a million premature deaths in China alone.
Developing countries are experiencing this exponential growth and most cannot afford to rebuild waste treatment plants to accommodate the masses of people. As a result more than one third of the people do not have sufficient sewer. In India fewer than one percent of the countries towns have proper sewage systems.
Water is yet another issue. Most cities in developing countries do not have suitable drinking water. These cities have water supplies that have been polluted by sewage, pesticides, and chemicals from factories that do not have to follow any regulations for toxic waste.
Coupled with poor water, poor air quality, and poor sanitation, most cities in developing countries do not have enough housing for the mass population. In some cities people sleep on the sidewalks or even in the streets because there is nowhere else to go.
Slums are built to accommodate high volumes of people often living in small rooms. While they provide a roof over people’s heads, they are not structurally sound. When a large earthquake rocked Turkey in 1999, 14,000 people died because of slums collapsing.
Another option in cities are shantytowns, though these are often illegal. Shantytowns are buildings made of cardboard and scrap metal and wood. These shantytowns often have no sanitation or clean water and dangerous methods of electricity. When governments destroy shantytowns the people are forced to move to other shantytowns and often only given minutes to collect their belongings.
The United Nations sees these problems and estimates that 1.1 billion people around the globe do not have access to safe drinking water and more than 2 billion do not have proper sanitation, making cities some of the most unsafe environments on the planet. Given all of these factors, people still move to the city for opportunity and to raise a family. Despite the struggle, they provide for their families and earn money in a constant effort to achieve more for their families.
Urban Transportation
In the past, cities were built around ports, train stations, and other main points of transportation intersection. The invention of the personal automobile and then the development of freeways in America made it easier for people to spread out and form cities and towns in other more remote locations. However, this meant that more land was wasted in the development of outside communities.
Most large cities have mass public transportation, but as cities sprawl out across the landscape it become more difficult and expensive to extend the public transportation to the outskirts of the cities. This forces people to need personal transportation adding to air pollution and road congestion.
Los Angeles is a good example of what the city sprawling has done to congestion. In the 1980’s people spent less than four hours a year in traffic jams, but by 2004 that number had jumped to 97 hours a year in traffic. Cities felt that adding more lanes to freeways would reduce congestion, but more lanes meant even more traffic.
Improving City Life
There is a way to stop the city sprawl and to improve the state of the cities that we have. This plan is called smart growth. Smart growth uses the land already within the city limits and prevents duplication of services and better use or existing resources. Smart growth also incorporates a variety of transportation sources and affordable housing. Smart growth requires that city officials and business leaders work together and commit to improve the stated of their cities.
One of the best examples in America of smart growth city is Portland, Oregon. Portland has set limits on how far the city can expand, forced use of old buildings and enabling better mass city transportation. While cities that grew at the same rate as Portland saw an increase of land mass, pollution, taxes and further strain on resources, Portland experience dramatic falls in taxes, pollution and wasted land.
Cities around the world have committed to improving growth in their cities. Urban developers have come up with creative ways to reuses old space in the cities. The design strives to keep people within a five minute walk of a store and other conveniences. This would reduce the need for personal transportation, improving the health (requiring exercise) of the citizens and lowering the pollution levels.
New urban ism also incorporates ways to make cities self sustainable, such as recycling, growing food locally, and cluster housing. The idea of cluster housing puts many homes in a small area leaving more open usable land as opposed the current situation in which each home has its own plot of land, making it unusable.
Sustainable Development
One of the most important factors of survival despite the increase in population is sustainability. Sustainable development seeks to live off the earth’s renewable resources (instead of expending its finite resources) and improving people’s lives in the process. Whether sustainable development is achievable is a topic of debate, while some believe that we are going to dry up our planet’s resources others believe that it is possible to make our lives sustainable.
Perhaps one of the keys to sustainable development is how we view our resources. Classical economics stated that our population bursts were going to use all of our planet’s resources leaving poor quality of life and ultimately population decline. Other economists have more faith in the human population, aiming for a steady state economy that would balance population growth with production. Even still neoclassical economists find capital in human life. While population increases so does the capacity for labor, and human knowledge all of which creates money. Every new person contributes to the economy.
Yet another form of economics is ecological economics. This form of economics uses nature as its model. In nature (untouched by humans) one species waste is another’s food and the cycle continues and creates a sustainable “community”. So can humans, through recycling and reclaiming waste. Ecological economists agree with the steady state idea, but emphasize the importance of population control. Low birth rates and death rates and recycling of resources will create a steady state environment, but the governments must also provide safe and stable politics and social stability. Ecological economists believe that given this “steady state” people will thrive and live healthier and happier lives and place value on social capital (art and humanities). These economist also put emphasis on what resources are renewable (naturally replenishing and recycling) and nonrenewable (finite-once used they are gone). However, where finite resources are depleted, innovation thrives. Humans, when faced with scarcity can be very clever in the extension of these resources, an important factor to ecological economics.
One of the biggest problems that face all economies today is the fact that many resources are not owned. For example, clean air and clean water and open space exist in our world for all of us, and yet the actions of a few are paid for by us all. For example, a cow is owned by farmer, but the overgrazing is paid for by everyone. Because of this it is important for entire communities to manage their local resources and for each person to take responsibility for their use and misuse of them.
International Trade and Responsible Development
Trade is an important part of our world. If it was a perfect process then each country would exchange resources with each other. Each country has valuable exports that other countries need. Unfortunately, trade is not perfect. Imports from other developing countries are usually cheap and the laborers are paid pennies compared to developed countries. If it is cheaper to produce a product in another country, then in theory it makes sense, however the reality is that someone stands to make money so people in the developing countries are barley paid enough to survive.
In an attempt to develop the world institutions like the World Bank were formed. Initially its purpose was to help rebuild post World War II Europe and Japan. But in the 1950s they began funding large projects around the world to boost economies. They granted large loans to countries to undergo projects that would improve their exports. Their plans began have huge ecological consequences. Smaller banks have formed with the same intent, but giving out smaller (sometimes only a few dollars) loans to help individual people buy items that improve their lives and their trade skills.
Chapter 13
We Produce Waste-How much?
We all make waste. We create about 3.6 tons of waste per person each year. This waste comes in the form of organic and inorganic material. We use paper, plastic, and metals that all turn to waste. We also create organic waste in the form of animal waste agricultural waste that recycle themselves back into the ground for nutrients and protect the soil from runoff.
We create a waste stream with all of our waste. Unfortunately a lot of our waste stream is mixed natural recyclable garbage with hazardous waste. Once combined it is difficult and in many instances impossible to separate them for recycling.
How Do We Get Rid of Our Waste?
While our methods of disposing waste have improved over the last twenty years, we still have a long way to go. Many developing cities use open dumps as a method for waste disposal. Open dumps are unregulated and are open to the wind and rain attracting insects and rats. Thousands of people spend their days and lives on these open piles of refuse sorting through and looking for edible or recyclable trash. For many of these cities are no other forms of waste disposal.
Another dangerous and harmful method of waste disposal is ocean dumping. 55 million pounds of trash finds its way to the sea every year. The waste litters beaches and kills countless numbers of sea life each year. Currents in the ocean move this trash thousands of miles and otherwise untouched beaches and shoreline bare the mark of our waste.
Historically, we have sent waste to other underdeveloped countries for disposal. In the last several decades this process has become illegal, but as with anything illegal, some will (and do) find a way. Perhaps some of the most dangerous waste we sent to other countries is e-waste. E-waste is made up of our disposed electronics and contains dangerous amounts of mercury and lead. The people in these countries tear apart this waste using crowbars, hammers, and their own bare hands to sell the metal for recycling. While China has banned e-waste, the United States and other countries have shifted the shipment of this waste to India.
Incineration has proved to be a valuable method of waste disposal. The energy released by burning this garbage be used to heat homes and create electricity. There is argument of whether the smoke released during the process is having a harmful effect on the environment. Some say that the impact is minimal, while others contend that the impact is high and dangerous.
The more waste we create, the more space we take up and the more valuable resources we consume. How do we stop this cycle? How do we preserve what we have and make it last us for generations to come? Reduce, Reuse and Recycle. First we must reduce the amount of waste that we generate. So much of our lives are wrapped around unnecessary packaging and wasted products. Developed countries throw away uneaten food and its packaging in large volumes every year. If we reduce what we use, we reduce the waste.
The next step would be to reuse. For example, glass soda bottles can be reused as many as 15 times before they are to damaged and need to go out for recycling. In many cities is it cheaper to reuse material than it is to recycle it. Old homes provide wood, glass and other pieces valuable to new homes. The more we reuse, the less that ends up in a landfill.
Of course there is recycling. Recycling can be a time consuming process, but can prevent millions of tons of paper, plastic and metal from entering landfills each year. The cost of recycling is made up for in the resulting product, however in many cases it is still cheaper for the consumer to purchase new plastic over recycled plastic. The more cities that encourage and enable recycling the fewer amount of trash will result in the landfills. Recycling takes a lot of buy in from the company and the consumer. Recycling prevents us from using our finite resources to create new material as well as can save tens of thousands of trees a year.
Hazardous Waste
Hazardous waste is any discarded material, liquid or solid that contains substances that are dangerous (in small amounts) to humans or animals, ignitable, toxic, corrosive, or explosive. These substances are produced largely as a byproduct of factories. Most of this waste is recycled and converted into nonhazardous forms or stored according to strict regulations.
In 1976 the American government passed the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) that required strict testing and management of this hazardous waste. RCRA requires that every step of the storage or recycling process is tightly managed and documented. In 1980 the government passed CERCLA (Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act). CERCLA’s goal was to clean up abandoned or closed factories that created toxic waste. Because of CERLA the EPA is able to hold previous owners of these industries responsible for the cost of cleanup. In 1984 CERLA was amended to include the right to know, giving people the right to know where toxic waste is used, produced, stored and transported.
Clean up and Storage
With an EPA estimated 36,000 severely contaminated sites in the United States alone, it is no wonder that there is such a large focus on cleaning up hazardous waste. Because of the large number of contaminated sites the NPL (National Priority List) was created, putting the most dangerous sites at the top of the list. The Superfund is designed to provide immediate emergency cleanup of toxic spills as well as cleanup of abandoned sites. Right now 70 million Americans live within six kilometers of a superfund site.
Despite efforts to clean up these sites, many of them remain empty land long after the cleanup. Investors fear purchasing this land because of the risk of future discoveries of more pollution and extensive clean up costs. The EPA requires (sometimes amid great controversy) that these sites are safe for children to play and even eat the dirt. If the area contains hazardous waste that seeped into the groundwater, the EPA requires that the water be drinkable before cleanup is complete.
Some hazardous waste can be recycled and reused; even more can go through a chemical process that makes the material no longer toxic. What cannot be recycled, reused, or chemically altered, must be stored in safe containers that prevent leakage and further environmental damage.
The best way to prevent hazardous waste in our world is simple to reduce what we create. Use what we have, do not throw away leftovers and be aware of what happens after we discard of this waste. Also important is to separate our non toxic trash from our toxic trash. Once cross contaminated the all of it becomes hazardous waste.
Chapter 9
Atmosphere and its Role
Our atmosphere is made up of four layers. The layer closest to the earth is called the troposphere. Inside the troposphere “weather” occurs. Weather includes wind, rain, snow and our daily temperatures. This clean dry air is made up of 78% nitrogen and 21% oxygen. The air inside this level of atmosphere air circulates in vertical and horizontal convection currents. Gravity holds this air close to the earth making the troposphere the densest layer of atmosphere.
Above the troposphere is the stratosphere (containing the ozone layer) and extends for about 30 miles. It has similar compounds as the troposphere, but on a much more diluted level. Deterioration of the stratosphere by chemical pollutants has raised concerns as more UV radiation is able to reach the earth’s surface. The stratosphere is calmer than the troposphere below it. This enables the stratosphere to hold onto harmful chemicals for several years.
Above the stratosphere extend the mesosphere and then the thermosphere. Above the stratosphere temperatures decline. The thermosphere is made up of very ionized gases that are heated by solar and cosmic radiation. High pulses of radiation cause electrically charged particles to glow, from earth we see this phenomenon and call it the Northern Lights.
Capturing Energy
The process that our atmosphere goes through to create and distribute energy is nothing short of amazing and complex. While one fourth of the energy from the sun is reflected by clouds and gases, and one fourth is absorbed by carbon dioxide and gases, the other half reaches our earth’s surface. We see this energy as light and heat. Snow, ice and sand are reflective and bounce back the light, while other surfaces absorb this light and heat. (the lighter or brighter the surface the more it reflects the sun’s energy, the darker the surface the more energy will be absorbed). Imagine wearing a white shirt in the middle of summer as opposed to wearing a black shirt. The black shirt will almost immediately heat up and raise your body temperature, where as the white shirt will reflect that heat and result in lower temperatures.
Energy is lost in this transfer of light to heat, as with anything that adheres to the second law of thermodynamics. If light is reflected on your black shirt, then your black shirt releases heat but energy is lost in the transfer. If our atmosphere was not able to capture this energy, we would see temperature changes of a least 35 degrees lower than what we have now. This process is also known as the greenhouse effect. The glass on a greenhouse allows the light and energy of the sun to enter the house, but not any heat or energy to escape, providing the perfect environment for growing plants and other vegetation.
Water also stores energy. Water vapor in the air holds most of the incoming solar energy. This storage is called latent heat. This stored energy powers thunderstorms, hurricanes and tornados. This air circulates around the globe and distributes snow and rain to distant locations. This air molecules release rain as they are moved north and the air cools making it dense and heavy.
Oceans play a significant role in our globe’s climate. The ocean winds move water and deep ocean water rises to the surface. These gyres carry water north and south redistributing heat from low to high latitudes. Places like San Francisco have cool damp weather patterns as a result of Alaskan ocean currents being pushed south. The same is true for Western Europe enjoying warmer temperatures because of warm water and air being pushed north.
This process is fragile. Melting ice caps can through of this balanced system and cause otherwise temperate climates to enter ice ages in record time.
Climate Changes
Our climate is changing. Perhaps not notably each year, but it is changing. Scientists use ice core samples to determine climate changes throughout history. Air bubbles get trapped between each layer of snowfall. Those air bubbles contain vital information as the climate the year the snow fell. By measuring the gases in these air bubbles, scientists are able to tell what climate changes the world was going through. The oldest of these ice core samples goes back 800,000 years and shows the fluctuation of climate over that period of time.
Because of the ice core samples, Serbian scientist Milankovitch discovered the Milankovitch Cycles. There are three cycles that include changes in the earth’s orbit every 100,000 years; changes in the earth axis every 40,000 years and the earth’s axis going out of balance every 26,000 years. Each of these cycles have a dramatic effect on the earth’s climate. Volcanic eruptions can also have an effect on the earth’s climate. However, the eruption must be powerful enough to send ash and sulfur two thousand times higher than Mt. Saint Helens in 1980. This kinds of atmosphere congestion can dim out the sun and cause the earth’s surface to become significantly cooler.
El Nino and La Nina are probably the most commonly known and talked about climate changes in our day. El Nino changes weather throughout the Pacific Ocean bringing with it heavy monsoons to some areas and disastrous drought to others. When the winds shift over a large pool of warm water between Indonesia and South America, the water moves and evaporates causing monsoons in Indonesia and dry hot weather in Mexico and California.
Adversely, La Nina does the opposite. Winds move the warm water in the opposite direction increasing rains in the Western United States and Mexico, but causing Indonesia to lose countless fields of crops to drought and South American fisheries to fail.
Both El Nino and La Nina affect far corners of the globe and change weather patterns. Many believe that global warming is causing El Nino and La Nina to last longer and cause more damage than ever before.
Fast Changing Climate
We have all heard that our climate is changing. In the last few years we have heard the debates about global warming. We have heard that this is a very real issue and in contrast that there is no issue at all. While we sit in our homes watching our televisions and listening to these arguments, the climate is changing.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a collaboration of scientists from 130 countries whose purpose is to review the evidence on the causes and effects of human caused climate change. The IPCC prepares extensive reports on the data evaluated about climate change. This data provides us with the very real situation our climate is in.
Our sea levels are also rising. As the global temperature raises glaciers, snow banks and ice caps melt and add to the volume of the ocean increasing our sea levels by one to two meters in the next 75 years. If the ice sheet in Greenland should completely melt, sea board cities like New York, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Tokyo as well as states like Florida would be flooded, displacing billions from their homes. This global climate change will bring with it drought and famine, causing civil war and unrest in suffering countries.
Concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have climbed by significant percentages in the last hundred years. Fossil fuel use claims responsibility for 80 percent of the carbon dioxide emissions, but cement production and the burning of forests and grasslands also contribute to the release and absorption of this gas into our atmosphere. There is not near as much methane in our atmosphere, but methane absorbs a significant amount more energy than carbon dioxide. Methane is released into our atmosphere by the decay of organic matter (especially under water). Methane is found in landfills, wet rice pads and pipeline leaks. Nitrous oxide is released from internal combustion engines and the burning of organic material. CFCs have also contributed to the global warming, but these levels have reduced since they were banned (remember the hair spray cans from the 1980’s).
While the United States holds less than five percent of the global population, it releases twenty five percent of the carbon dioxide emissions! While other countries (such as China and India) may release a higher percentage of emissions, their per capita (per person) emissions are less than one fifth that of the United States. There are countries with high standards of living and low emissions. Countries like Sweden and Switzerland have a very high quality of life, but low atmospheric emissions. These countries prove that it is possible to maintain a high quality of life without sacrificing the environment.
Evidence of Change
The evidence of this climate change is staring us right in the face. In the last hundred years our global temperature has risen 0.6 degrees Celsius (with 19 of the 20 warmest years of the last century in a half having occurred in the last thirty years). The evidence of this warming can be seen in the Polar Regions where permafrost is melting, the ground is sinking, and coastal erosion is occurring. The Arctic sea ice is 50 percent as thick as it was in the 1980s. This is endangering species such as polar bears, seals, and even traditional lifestyles of the Inuit people.
Most alpine glaciers are melting and ice caps are disappearing. The sea levels have risen about 20 cm in the last hundred years. Seasons are lasting longer and plants and animals are extending their territories into arctic regions. Droughts are becoming more frequent. Animals are breeding more earlier and for longer periods of time. Coral reefs are losing their colorful algae necessary for their survival because the sea temperatures are too warm.
Taking all of these changes into account, it would cost us upwards of 90 trillion dollars to survive this global climate change. If world leaders agreed to adjust our emissions and forms of energy to decrease our emissions by two percent per year, our climate would stabilize and the cost would be a fraction of what it would cost to survive
The Ongoing Debate
So why the debate? If the signs are right in front of us, and we can almost watch the transformation before our very eyes, why dispute its truth? A series of misconceptions and the desire to turn a blind eye have fueled these debates. Lies like there are no alternate forms of energy (forget that we have solar and wind energy available?) and that change requires us to change our current way of life (but Sweden seems to be doing just fine) make people afraid to support the effort to save our climate. Perhaps the most commonly spoken statement is that these climate scientists don’t know everything and have made errors. Human error is natural and common, but this devastating change that our world faces is there right before us. No interpretation is needed; the ice that was once there is gone, the animals that once lived freely and abundant now have higher populations in zoos than in the wild. Perhaps the time for ignorance has passed. We need to make a change before we have the chance to be sorry we didn’t. Our mistakes will be paid for by the entire globe.
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